CMHC Housing Market Outlook

Single-detached home starts are forecast to increase to 9,100 units in 2014 and 9,400 units in 2015. Based on historical data, single-detached homes tend to be the preferred housing type in most areas of the province. As the economy gains traction and growth in employment and incomes increases, expect a slight shift to single-detached home starts.

Multiple housing starts are projected to total 18,700 units in 2014 and 18,400 units in 2015, compared

to 18,532 units in 2013. Starts of apartments, condominiums, townhomes and semi-detached homes are forecast to remain relatively unchanged, as the combination of current multiple housing under construction, the existing inventory of newly completed and unabsorbed units, and a well-supplied resale market are expected to satisfy some of the demand for denser housing types.

Existing home sales, as measured by MLS® transactions, are projected to remain below levels recorded in the pre-2009 period despite an upward trajectory.  Expect 76,000 resales in 2014 and 77,300 resales in 2015,compared to 72,936 resales in 2013.

The MLS® average price is forecast at $542,500 in 2014 and $547,100 in 2015. The upward trend in the MLS® average price in 2013 is expected to lead to increased new listings in 2014. With the increased supply of existing homes for sale providing more choice to homebuyers the MLS® average price is forecast to grow at a pace slower than the general rate of inflation.

CMHC