July 19, 2011
Signals rate hike may be on the horizon
The Bank of Canada held its trend-setting Bank Rate at 1.25 per cent on June 19th, 2011. This marks the seventh consecutive policy decision in which interest rates have been kept on hold.
The Bank has been warning for some time that interest rates will ultimately have to rise, but hinted more strongly in this most recent announcement that a hike was coming by removing the word “eventually” as to when that might happen.
The Bank said, “To the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be withdrawn, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.”
The Bank noted, however, that downside risks to the outlook remain elevated, with debt woes on both sides of the Atlantic, and that the outlook for a gradually improving domestic picture assumes these issues will be contained. As regards the European situation the Bank said, “The Bank’s projection assumes that authorities are able to contain the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, although there are clear risks around this outcome.”
The Bank’s forcast for economic growth in Canada was little changed from its April forecast. The Bank now expects the economy will grow 2.8 per cent this year. This was revised slightly from the previous forecast of 2.9 per cent. The Bank kept its 2012 and 2013 growth forecasts unchanged at 2.6per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively.
Also unchanged were expectations that the output gap, a measure the spare capacity in the economy, would be closed by the middle of next year, and that headline inflation would remain above 3 per cent in the near term due to temporary factors, namely higher food and energy prices.
The core rate of inflation, which strips out those volatile items, hit 1.8 per cent in May owing to “persistent strength in the prices of some services.” The Bank now expects the core rate to “remain around 2 per cent over the projection horizon.”
As of July 19th, 2011, the advertised five-year lending rate stood at 5.54 per cent. This is down 0.05 percentage points from 5.59 per cent on May 31st, when the Bank made its previous policy interest rate announcement.
The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on September 7, 2011, and many experts had already been forecasting a rate hike at that time. Given the slight change in tone in this most recent announcement, bets for a September hike will likely be increased further. That said, a lot could happen between then and now, particularly given the magnitude of current downside risks.
Copyright CREA reprinted with permission
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Canadian Home Sales Pick Up In June
According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales activity over MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards climbed in June 2011 compared to May.
Highlights:
• Sales activity climbed from May to June, with a big year-over-year gain reflecting falling demand in June 2010.
• Year-to-date sales remain in line with the ten-year average.
• The number of newly listed homes also rose from May to June.
• National housing market remains firmly entrenched in balanced territory.
• National average price still being skewed upward by the value of sales in expensive Vancouver neighbourhoods, with price gains in other markets providing additional loft.
Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity rose 2.6 per cent in June 2011 compared to the previous month. Two-thirds of local markets posted month-over-month gains in June.
Activity remained stable in Toronto while declining slightly in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Major markets that saw gains compared to May included Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa, London, Hamilton, and Victoria.
“Canadian housing demand remains resilient, thanks to low interest rates, job growth, and home buyer confidence in the economy,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “That said, local housing market trends often differ from national trends, so buyers and sellers should consult their local REALTOR® to understand how the housing market is shaping up where they live.”
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 10.8 per cent above June 2010 levels, but this largely reflects falling sales activity last June. This was also the case for the year-over-year increase in activity in May. Year-over-year comparisons in July may also be stretched by falling activity one year ago, since July 2010 marked the low point for activity last year.
“The Canadian housing sector remains on a solid footing,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The rise in monthly home sales activity at the end of the second quarter, upbeat business sentiment and hiring intentions, and signs that the Bank of Canada is in no rush to raise interest rates bode well for home sales activity and prices going into the second half of 2011.”
National sales activity was down 4.7 per cent in the second quarter compared to levels in the first quarter. This in part reflects how new mortgage rules announced in January and implemented at the end of March pulled sales forward into the first quarter at the expense of sales activity in April and May. Mortgage interest rates also rose in April and May, which may have moved some home buyers to the sidelines.
A total of 245,170 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in the first half of 2011. Year-to-date sales activity is running in line with the ten-year average, with monthly sales activity having come close to the ten-year average from January to June this year (Chart A). This highlights the relative stability of demand this year compared to the past three years, when activity swung significantly above and below average monthly levels.
The number of newly listed homes also rose nationally by 1.8 per cent from May to June. Gains in Toronto, Vancouver, and Ottawa contributed most to the national increase. The rise in new listings will be especially welcome news for home buyers in Toronto, where listings have been in short supply relative to demand this year.
The national housing market remains firmly planted in balanced territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 52.6 per cent in June, little changed from 52.2 per cent in May.
About 60 per cent of local housing markets in Canada were balanced in June. Almost half of the remainder can be classified as sellers’ markets, based on a sales-to-new listings ratio above 60 per cent.
The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory stood at six months at the end of June on a national basis, holding steady compared to May. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.
The national average price for homes sold in June 2011 was $372,700, up 8.7 per cent from the same month last year. The national average price is becoming less affected by the overall number of sales in some expensive Vancouver neighbourhoods, but is still being pitched higher by the value of those sales. Activity in these neighbourhoods has eased from levels reported in February and March, while sales elsewhere across Canada have risen in line with normal seasonal trends. As a result, property sales above $1 million in Vancouver West, West Vancouver, and Richmond now account for a smaller but still elevated share of national activity.
While the effect of Vancouver activity on the national average price has begun to wane, broadly based price gains in other housing markets are holding the national average price aloft. Close to 80 per cent of local markets posted year-over-year average price gains in June. This includes Toronto, where price gains reflect a tight balance between supply and demand.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
Highlights:
• Sales activity climbed from May to June, with a big year-over-year gain reflecting falling demand in June 2010.
• Year-to-date sales remain in line with the ten-year average.
• The number of newly listed homes also rose from May to June.
• National housing market remains firmly entrenched in balanced territory.
• National average price still being skewed upward by the value of sales in expensive Vancouver neighbourhoods, with price gains in other markets providing additional loft.
Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity rose 2.6 per cent in June 2011 compared to the previous month. Two-thirds of local markets posted month-over-month gains in June.
Activity remained stable in Toronto while declining slightly in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Major markets that saw gains compared to May included Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa, London, Hamilton, and Victoria.
“Canadian housing demand remains resilient, thanks to low interest rates, job growth, and home buyer confidence in the economy,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “That said, local housing market trends often differ from national trends, so buyers and sellers should consult their local REALTOR® to understand how the housing market is shaping up where they live.”
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 10.8 per cent above June 2010 levels, but this largely reflects falling sales activity last June. This was also the case for the year-over-year increase in activity in May. Year-over-year comparisons in July may also be stretched by falling activity one year ago, since July 2010 marked the low point for activity last year.
“The Canadian housing sector remains on a solid footing,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The rise in monthly home sales activity at the end of the second quarter, upbeat business sentiment and hiring intentions, and signs that the Bank of Canada is in no rush to raise interest rates bode well for home sales activity and prices going into the second half of 2011.”
National sales activity was down 4.7 per cent in the second quarter compared to levels in the first quarter. This in part reflects how new mortgage rules announced in January and implemented at the end of March pulled sales forward into the first quarter at the expense of sales activity in April and May. Mortgage interest rates also rose in April and May, which may have moved some home buyers to the sidelines.
A total of 245,170 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in the first half of 2011. Year-to-date sales activity is running in line with the ten-year average, with monthly sales activity having come close to the ten-year average from January to June this year (Chart A). This highlights the relative stability of demand this year compared to the past three years, when activity swung significantly above and below average monthly levels.
The number of newly listed homes also rose nationally by 1.8 per cent from May to June. Gains in Toronto, Vancouver, and Ottawa contributed most to the national increase. The rise in new listings will be especially welcome news for home buyers in Toronto, where listings have been in short supply relative to demand this year.
The national housing market remains firmly planted in balanced territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 52.6 per cent in June, little changed from 52.2 per cent in May.
About 60 per cent of local housing markets in Canada were balanced in June. Almost half of the remainder can be classified as sellers’ markets, based on a sales-to-new listings ratio above 60 per cent.
The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory stood at six months at the end of June on a national basis, holding steady compared to May. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.
The national average price for homes sold in June 2011 was $372,700, up 8.7 per cent from the same month last year. The national average price is becoming less affected by the overall number of sales in some expensive Vancouver neighbourhoods, but is still being pitched higher by the value of those sales. Activity in these neighbourhoods has eased from levels reported in February and March, while sales elsewhere across Canada have risen in line with normal seasonal trends. As a result, property sales above $1 million in Vancouver West, West Vancouver, and Richmond now account for a smaller but still elevated share of national activity.
While the effect of Vancouver activity on the national average price has begun to wane, broadly based price gains in other housing markets are holding the national average price aloft. Close to 80 per cent of local markets posted year-over-year average price gains in June. This includes Toronto, where price gains reflect a tight balance between supply and demand.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
BC Home Sales Steady in June
Vancouver, BC – July 14, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential unit sales in the province rose 2.4 per cent to 7,904 units in June compared to the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price climbed 14.4 per cent to $571,837 last month compared to June 2010.
“Home sales were relatively unchanged in June compared to last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, low mortgage interest rates and an overdue pick-up in BC employment growth are expected to provide some incentive to consumers over the summer months.”
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 15.5 per cent to $24.7 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales are essentially unchanged compared to the halfway point of 2010 at 42,095 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 16.1 per cent to $585,661 over the same period.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
“Home sales were relatively unchanged in June compared to last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, low mortgage interest rates and an overdue pick-up in BC employment growth are expected to provide some incentive to consumers over the summer months.”
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 15.5 per cent to $24.7 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales are essentially unchanged compared to the halfway point of 2010 at 42,095 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 16.1 per cent to $585,661 over the same period.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
Home Sales to Rise 5 Per Cent This Year
BCREA 2011 Second Quarter Housing Forecast
Vancouver, BC – June 30, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 5 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 78,200 units this year, before increasing a further 3.1 per cent to 80,700 units in 2012.
“Home sales will post some modest gains over the next two years,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, positive housing fundamentals like job growth, rising wages and an expanding population base will be somewhat offset by higher borrowing costs over the next eighteen months.”
“Following a decade where unit sales broke all records, consumer demand over the next few years will be relatively moderate,” added Muir. The ten-year BC MLS® residential sales average is 87,000 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
Vancouver, BC – June 30, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 5 per cent from 74,640 units in 2010 to 78,200 units this year, before increasing a further 3.1 per cent to 80,700 units in 2012.
“Home sales will post some modest gains over the next two years,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, positive housing fundamentals like job growth, rising wages and an expanding population base will be somewhat offset by higher borrowing costs over the next eighteen months.”
“Following a decade where unit sales broke all records, consumer demand over the next few years will be relatively moderate,” added Muir. The ten-year BC MLS® residential sales average is 87,000 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
BC Home Sales Edge Lower in May
Vancouver, BC – June 15, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential unit sales in the province edged down one per cent to 7,857 units in May compared to the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price climbed 20 per cent to $596,872 last month compared to May 2010.
"Tighter mortgage rules, tepid employment growth and advance buying during the first quarter kept BC home sales on a lower note in May,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, recent downward pressure on mortgage interest rates is expected to provide some incentive to consumers over the summer months."
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 15 per cent to $20.1 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales edged back one per cent to 34,191 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 16.5 per cent to $588,857 over the same period.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
"Tighter mortgage rules, tepid employment growth and advance buying during the first quarter kept BC home sales on a lower note in May,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, recent downward pressure on mortgage interest rates is expected to provide some incentive to consumers over the summer months."
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 15 per cent to $20.1 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales edged back one per cent to 34,191 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 16.5 per cent to $588,857 over the same period.
Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission
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