Tuesday, September 1, 2009

BC Home Sales Brightest Light in Economy

Vancouver, BC – August 27, 2009. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Forecast Update for the third quarter of 2009 today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to climb 15 per cent from 68,923 units in 2008 to 79,400 units this year, just below the ten-year average of 82,800 units. Residential sales in 2010 are forecast to rise an additional 6 per cent to 84,200 units. For comparison, a record 106,310 units were sold in 2005.

“After 12 months of significant volatility in BC’s housing markets, greater stability is expected through 2010,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Robust housing demand is a strong signal that the economy is coming out of the recession, with a recovery in the broader economy expected to develop over the next three quarters.”

“Home sales have doubled since January, with prices edging higher in Metro Vancouver and Victoria in recent months,” said Muir. The average annual MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to reach $451,200 in this year, down 1 per cent from a record $454,599 in 2008.

“Market conditions vary depending on the region of the province,” added Muir. “While the Metro Vancouver and Victoria markets have rebounded sharply, interior markets are demonstrating a more gradual trend toward balance between supply and demand.”
BC housing starts are forecast to increase 25 per cent 18,500 units next year after a dismal 2009. Housing starts are forecast to decline 57 per cent to 14,800 units this year, the lowest level of activity since 2000.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

MLS® home sales forecast revised

OTTAWA – August 27, 2009 – MLS® home sales were much stronger than expected in the second quarter of 2009, with activity having climbed throughout the quarter and into July. The remarkable recovery of resale housing has prompted a change to the MLS® home sales forecast issued by The Canadian Real Estate Association for 2009 and 2010.
The speed and magnitude of the rebound in sales activity to date has lifted CREA’s national forecast for the number of transactions to 432,600 units. This represents an annual decline in activity of 0.4 per cent compared to levels set in 2008, and is a significant upward revision from the previously forecast decline of 14.7 per cent in CREA’s forecast issued last May.
“Sales activity started off the third quarter on a strong footing,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “The difference in the resale housing market now, compared to the beginning of the year, is night and day, and nowhere is this more evident than in the West.”
British Columbia and Ontario are now forecast to post annual increases in activity this year, reflecting weak demand last year and a subsequent rebound. Forecast declines in annual activity were trimmed significantly in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec, and were also shaved for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
National MLS® home sales activity is forecast to rise 5.3 per cent to 455,400 units in 2010. This is a smaller rise in activity than previously forecast. “Low interest rates are boosting sales by returning homebuyers to the market who moved to the sidelines late last year, and shifting ” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Buyers are also shifting purchase decisions forward as they take advantage of attractive interest rates now before financing costs increase.”
New listings have been edging down from record levels, with many sellers taking their home off the market pending an improvement in housing market conditions. Average price increases in the second half of 2009 are likely result in a mild rebound in listings in 2010.
The national MLS® average home price is forecast to edge up 1.5 per cent in 2009, as the strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in some of Canada’s most expensive markets continues to skew the national, and some provincial, average prices upward. Alberta is the only province with a forecast decline in average price in 2009 (-4.4 per cent). Average prices are forecast to rise in all other provinces except British Columbia, where average price in 2009 is forecast to remain stable. CREA’s previous forecast predicted a decline in the national average price of 5.2 per cent in 2009.
Average prices are forecast to stabilize over the rest of 2009 and into 2010, but weak results in the first quarter of 2009 will result in a lower annual average price this year compared to 2010. The national average price is forecast to be up 2.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis in 2010.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average price is forecast to climb 1.4 per cent in 2009, with a further 1.7 per cent rise in 2010. CREA previously forecast that the weighted national average price for MLS® homes sales would hold steady from 2009 to 2010.
“The speed with which the Canadian resale housing market has rebounded is unprecedented,” said Klump. “The economic recovery is expected to be slow and protracted, so the dramatic swings in activity seen in late 2008 and this year are unlikely to be repeated in 2010.”
“Copyright Canadian Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

New Site for Consumers and REALTORS® to Voice Concern About HST

Vancouver, BC – August 24, 2009. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) today launched a new section of its website to provide the public and REALTORS® with information about the impact of the proposed Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) and an opportunity to voice their concerns about the tax. This new resource, which can be found at www.bcrea.bc.ca/hst/hstaction.htm, encourages concerned citizens and REALTORS® to proactively communicate their dissatisfaction with the HST by sending letters to their local MLAs, Premier Gordon Campbell, Minister of Finance Colin Hansen and Carole James, Leader of the Official Opposition.

“Housing is an essential basic need and a significant part of the BC economy,” said BCREA president John Tillie. “We hope the public will join with REALTORS® across the province to express their concern by writing to the government. The HST is unfair to homebuyers and sellers, and the government must take action to minimize the impact of this unfair tax on consumers.”

On July 1, 2010 the proposed HST will significantly increase the cost of buying and selling all property, particularly newly-built homes. With almost 60 per cent of a BC family’s household income required to cover home ownership costs, BCREA is concerned that homebuyers will bear most of the burden associated with the HST resulting in a negative effect on BC’s housing affordability.

BCREA is calling on the provincial government to exempt real estate related services, and to increase the rebate threshold on new housing to at least $500,000, with the threshold indexed for inflation and adjusted annually. The government should also amend the flat rebate of $20,000 to a fixed percentage rebate of four per cent for new homes over the rebate threshold and introduce a three-year phase-out of the Property Transfer Tax to restore fairness for homebuyers.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

BC Housing Market Exhibits Balanced Conditions - Regional Differences Persist

Vancouver, BC – August 14, 2009. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province climbed 53 per cent to 10,051 units in July 2009 compared to the same month last year. After six consecutive months of rising home sales and declining inventories, the province moved into balanced conditions in July, the first time since April 2008.
“Record home sales in Metro Vancouver and Victoria propelled the province into balanced conditions last month,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While conditions in many interior markets are getting much better, their reliance on the struggling resource sector and a recent spate of forest fires have contributed to a more gradual pace of improvement.”
Year-to-date, MLS® residential sales dollar volume declined 10 per cent to $21 billion over the same period last year. A total of 46,380 units were sold in the first seven months of 2009, down 6 per cent from 2008, while the average MLS® price declined 4 per cent to $451,758.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

Best July on record for MLS® home sales

National resale housing market activity continued climbing in July 2009, with sales posting the largest year-over-year gain in two years. It was also the first time on record that sales activity topped 50,000 units for the month of July in any year on record.
According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), a total of 50,270 homes traded hands via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards in July 2009. This is up 18.2 per cent from the same month last year, and stands 3.9 per cent above the previous record for the month of July set back in 2007.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, national MLS® home sales posted a sixth consecutive month-over-month increase in July, climbing 2.5 per cent from June to reach 42,539 units. Seasonally adjusted activity now stands 61.2 per cent above the decade-low in January, and just 1.4 per cent below the all-time peak May 2007.
“Sales activity started off the third quarter on a strong footing,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “The difference in the resale housing market now, compared to the beginning of the year, is night and day, and nowhere is this more evident than in the West. Homebuyers recognize that interest rates and prices have bottomed out, and are taking advantage of excellent affordability before prices and interest rates move higher.”
Resale activity in July 2009 was up from the same month last year in about 60 per cent of local markets. Year-over-year gains in Toronto (28 per cent), Vancouver (90 per cent), Montreal (19 per cent), Calgary (22 per cent) and Edmonton (28 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.
Demand is rebounding sharply in some of Canada’s priciest housing markets, which continues to skew the national average price upward. The national MLS® residential average price rose 7.6 per cent from one year ago to $326,832. Only seven local markets posted new average price records in July. The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in some of Canada’s most expensive markets is skewing the national average price upward, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets skewed the average lower in late 2008.
The price trend is similar but more muted for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 4.6 per cent year-over-year in July 2009.
The weighted average price increase for an aggregate of 25 major markets reveals a similarly muted trend compared to its unweighted counterpart. The major market weighted average price rose 2.8 per cent year-over-year in July 2009, compared to an increase of 8.3 per cent for the unweighted major market average price. The major market weighted average price compensates for changes in sales activity in major markets by taking into account the proportion of privately owned housing stock in each market in relation to the major market aggregate.
The supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market remained down from year-ago levels. Down 13 per cent from year-ago levels to 73,444 units, this represents the seventh year-over-year decline in as many months in the number of new listings.
Rebounding demand combined with fewer new listings is beginning to draw down the overall supply of homes on the market. There were 219,982 homes listed for sale on the MLS® systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end of July 2009, down 12.4 per cent from July 2008. It is the third consecutive year-over-year decline in active listings, and the largest in more than six years.
The number of months of inventory is equal to the supply of active listings at the end of the month divided by the number of sales that month. It represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. Nationally, there were 4.4 months of inventory in July. This is up slightly from June, but remains one of the lowest figures over the past two years, and well below the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009.
The seasonally adjusted dollar volume of all residential MLS® sales set a new record in July 2009, climbing 5.5 per cent from the previous month to reach $13.8 billion.
“Home sales through the MLS® systems in July provide clear evidence that sentiment about making major purchases continues to improve,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Activity may level out over the rest of the year as home prices and mortgage lending interest rates creep higher.”
“The number of new listings coming onto the market is down from last year and the rebound in sales activity is paring inventories, so the number months of inventory is on the wane,” said Klump. “These trends are supporting average prices. Average prices dropped sharply over the second half of 2008 but have rebounded since then, so average prices are expected to continue climbing over the rest of the year.”
“Copyright Canadian Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

Bank of Canada holds interest rates steady

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 0.25 per cent at its setting on July 21st, 2009. The trend-setting Bank rate, which is set 0.25 percentage points above the overnight lending rate, remains at 0.5 per cent.
The Bank said it expects Canada’s economy will contract 2.3 per cent this year, which is significantly better than the forecast it issued in April, which called for a three per cent decline. The forecast also calls for growth of three per cent in 2010, up from 2.5 per cent in April.
The Bank cited the recent strength in domestic demand, the result of “a bringing forward of household expenditures,” as the main reason for the rosier projection.
“The Bank has acknowledged that pent-up demand from late last year and earlier this year, combined with low mortgage rates, has resulted in a stronger than expected recovery in the housing market,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “The strength in the housing sector was cited as the reason for the upward revision to the economic forecast, outweighing the moderating effect of a high Canadian dollar.”
Domestic demand is being spurred by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, improved financial conditions, firmer commodity prices, and a rebound in consumer and business confidence. “However,” the Bank said, “the higher Canadian dollar, as well as ongoing restructuring in key industrial sectors, is significantly moderating the pace of overall growth.” The Bank had warned at its previous meeting in June that the persistence of a high Canadian dollar would be the main downside risk to growth.
The Bank noted that many countries are now seeing economic activity begin to expand in response to monetary and fiscal policy measures, but went on to call the recovery “nascent”. The Bank noted the importance of keeping this stimulus in place, saying, “effective and resolute policy implementation remains critical to sustained global growth.”
The Bank indicated that inflation outlook is still unfolding as it predicted in the April Monetary Policy Report. At that time, it forecast that inflation would to climb back to the two per cent midpoint of its target range between one and three per cent in the third quarter of 2011.
The Bank also reiterated its pledge to hold interest rates at current levels until the end of the second quarter of 2010, conditional on its inflation outlook. As such, these sections are likely to be unchanged when the Bank releases its July Monetary Policy Report on Thursday July 23rd.
In April, and again in June, the Bank assessed the overall risks to its inflation projection as tilted slightly to the downside. It reiterated this assessment in its interest rate announcement on July 21st.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report published on April 23rd included information about additional monetary policy tools it may use to further inject liquidity into the financial system in its ongoing attack against the continuing credit crunch. In its statement, the Bank again said that it “retains considerable flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates,” making it likely that this framework will appear again in the July Monetary Policy Report.
As of July 21st, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.85 per cent. This is down 1.3 per cent from one year earlier, but has risen 0.4 per cent from where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on June 4th.
Improving credit market conditions have enabled lenders to reintroduce discounts off posted mortgage interest rates. Discounts of up to a percentage point can be negotiated, depending on lender-client relationship.
(CREA 07/21/2009)“Copyright Canadian Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

The Meaning of REALTOR® (and MLS®)

You’ll see the terms REALTOR® and MLS® system used frequently in this column, as well as out in the world of real estate advertising. The terms are now ubiquitous enough that most people have at least a basic idea of what they think those terms represent. But you might be surprised to know that both of them are registered trademarks owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), and used under license by real estate boards and associations across Canada.
The term REALTOR® is not synonymous with “real estate agent” or “broker”. The trademark REALTOR® identifies only those real estate professionals who are members of the Canadian Real Estate Association and, as such, subscribe to a high standard of professional service and a strict Code of Ethics. Every member of a Real Estate Board is also a member of CREA, and therefore we are permitted to use the term REALTOR® to describe themselves as members of CREA. All REALTORS® across Canada, are governed by the REALTOR® Code of Ethics, which states that REALTORS® are committed to:
- Professional competent service
- Absolute honesty and integrity in business dealings
- Co-operation with and fairness to all
- Personal accountability through compliance with CREA’s Standards of Business Practice
To meet their obligations, REALTORS® pledge to observe the spirit of the Code in all of their activities and conduct their business in accordance with the Standards of Business Practice and the Golden Rule – do unto others as you would have them do unto you.
Now let’s talk about the term MLS®. It’s not a noun, or a thing, but an adjective that refers to a standard of service – the MLS® Services – that are provided by CREA members. Local real estate boards or associations license the term MLS® from CREA to use to describe their co-operative selling systems, referred to as MLS® systems. An MLS® system includes an inventory of listings of participating REALTORS® and ensures a certain level of accuracy of information, professionalism and co-operating amongst REALTORS® to effect the purchase and sale of real estate. The Board ensures that level of accuracy and professionalism by enforcing a set of Board-specific MLS® Rules and Regulations that apply to all members’ listings.
Only a real estate professional who is also a REALTOR® can list properties on his or her Board’s local MLS® system. When your home is listed on the MLS® system, all REALTORS® can view it, creating a much wider pool of potential buyers than a sign on your lawn would offer. If you’re looking for a new home, working with a REALTOR® gains you access to all the properties listed on the MLS® system. He or she can set up a custom search that e-mails you details of properties that meet your criteria. It’s a service that only a REALTOR® can offer you.
REALTORS® are proud of the professional real estate services they provide and the Code of Ethics they adhere to.
“Copyright Canadian Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

BC Survey Suggests Real Estate Purchase Confidence Improving

Vancouver, BC – July 15, 2009. A new survey of BC homeowners and renters on housing affordability and green housing issues suggests consumer confidence concerning real estate purchases may be improving.

Sponsored by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), the May 2009 Mustel Group survey tracked several key measures asked in a January 2009 BCREA survey, including top affordability barriers and how provincial taxes impact BC homebuyers. It also uncovered new primary data on buyer intentions and energy-efficiency practices at home.

Findings revealed that four-in-ten British Columbians plan or hope to purchase homes or properties within the next five years, with about half of these potential buyers expecting to do so in the next two years. A higher proportion plan to purchase in Metro Vancouver (46 per cent) than elsewhere (35 per cent), which may indicate that consumer confidence is now higher in the urban area. In the January 2009 survey, findings did not vary by region.

“We’ve had five consecutive months of increasing home sales, which may suggest that the optimism uncovered in this survey is being reflected in provincial home sales,” explains BCREA president John Tillie. “The May 2009 survey also revealed that people’s perception of the barriers to home ownership have also changed, which is good news for homebuyers, sellers and renters.”

Although affordability continues to be the key barrier to purchase, along with concerns about job security, lowering market values and general concerns about the economy, a slightly higher proportion of BC residents in the May 2009 measure indicated they did not have any purchase barriers at all. There was also a decrease in the number of people concerned about depreciating property values and less mention of general financial barriers.

The survey findings also revealed that making smart green choices at home is still top of mind for most British Columbians. When asked if they were more likely, less likely or about as likely to make green improvements to their homes compared to this time in 2008, one out of every two BC residents answered that they were more likely now to green their home than they were approximately one year ago.

“It’s important to remember that all of us can take part in reducing household greenhouse gas emissions by improving the overall energy efficiency of our homes,” says Tillie. “Green choices are smart choices, and they help improve the Quality of Life in our communities.” Survey findings suggest the majority of British Columbians (65 per cent) would be willing to pay more for an energy efficient home.

“Because this survey immediately followed the provincial election, we also asked British Columbians whether they were happy with the attention paid to housing issues during the campaign,” says Tillie. “Only one in four were satisfied, which is something BCREA plans to address looking toward the next provincial election in 2013.”

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

MLS® home sales rebound in the second quarter

OTTAWA – July 14th, 2009 – National resale housing market activity bounced back strongly in the second quarter of 2009 above levels reported for the same period last year. Demand continues to rebound sharply in some of the most expensive markets in the country, skewing the national average price upward.
According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales, via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) of Canadian real estate boards, totaled 147,351 units in the second quarter of 2009 – the fourth strongest quarterly sales figure ever. Up 1.4 per cent from the second quarter of 2008, this marks the first year-over-year increase in quarterly activity since the fourth quarter of 2007.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, national MLS® home sales numbered 114,173 units in the second quarter, jumping up a record 31.5 per cent from the first quarter of 2009.
“Potential buyers who moved to the sidelines late last year when economic uncertainty peaked are returning to the housing market now that the worst of the recession may be behind us,” said Dale Ripplinger, President of The Canadian Real Estate Association.
Seasonally adjusted resale activity in the second quarter was up from the previous quarter in about 85 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Toronto (45 per cent), Vancouver (77 per cent), Montreal (33 per cent), Calgary (66 per cent) and Edmonton (39 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.
Strong upward momentum for monthly sales activity was sustained throughout the second quarter. June marked the fifth consecutive month in which activity was up from month-ago levels. Some 41,304 homes traded hands via the MLS® of real estate boards in Canada on a seasonally adjusted basis in June 2009. This is up 8.7 per cent from May and represents the first time since January 2008 that monthly activity topped 40,000 units.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales climbed 17.9 per cent year-over-year to 54,616 units in June 2009. This is on par with the record for the month of June set in 2007 and is the fourth highest level for activity in any month on record.
The national MLS® residential average sale price reached the highest quarterly level ever in the second quarter of 2009. At $318,696, the average sale price was up half a percent from the previous record set in the second quarter of 2008.
The national average home price also scaled new heights on a monthly basis, climbing 3.6 per cent year-overyear to $326,613 in June 2009. However, only 13 local markets posted new average price records in June, less than a handful of which are among the most active or expensive. The strong rebound in sales activity, not price, in Canada’s most expensive markets is skewing average prices upward nationally and in some provinces, just as a sharp decline in activity in these markets skewed the average lower in late 2008.
MLS® home sales rebound in the second quarter. The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 1.7 per cent year-over-year in June 2009 – less than half of the percentage increase in the unweighted national average price.
The supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market continued retreating in second quarter. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were down 16.9 per cent from the previous quarter to 197,049 units, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2005.
Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.2 months in June 2009. This is the lowest level since August 2007, and well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
The residential dollar volume for MLS® sales jumped 40.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter basis in the second quarter of 2009, to reach $34.8 billion.
“Low interest rates have improved the affordability of homeownership, as have price adjustments in housing markets that previously experienced rapid price increases,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Housing markets where negotiations recently favoured the buyer have become more balanced and the stage is being set for modest price appreciation as inventories are drawn down by sales.”
“Sales momentum remains strong going into the second half of 2009,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “Chances are good that the number of transactions in the second half of 2009 will surpass levels in the first half of the year.”

“Copyright Canadian Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”