Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding the target for its overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that uncertainty in the global outlook, particularly with regard to policies in the United States, is undiminished. The Canadian economy is forecast to grow 2.1 per cent in both 2017 and 2018, implying the Canadian economy will return to full capacity in mid-2018.  On inflation, the Bank noted that it continued to be lower than expected but should return to it 2 per cent target in coming months.

Political uncertainty in the United States will likely govern the direction of both policy rates and long-term bond yields over the next year. The interest rate on 5-year government of Canada bonds has risen to its highest point in a year, which is adding upward pressure to mortgage rates offered by Canadian lenders.  While the Canadian economy is forecast to post steady growth in 2017, overall slack in the Canadian economy remains persistent.  Without a significant uptick in economic growth, inflation will likely continue to trend at or below the Bank's 2 per cent target.  That, along with lingering uncertainty, will keep the Bank sidelined through 2017 with a chance of lowering its target rate should current downside risks to the economy become realized.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

Canadian Manufacturing Sales

Canadian manufacturing sales rose 1.5 per cent in November after posting a moderate decline the previous month.  Sales were higher in 14 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors. After adjusting for inflation, the total volume of sales was 1.2 per cent higher.

In BC, where the manufacturing sector is a significant employer and a key driver of economic growth, sales were up 2.4 per cent on a monthly basis and 9.2 per cent year-over-year. The manufacturing sector has been on a significant upswing after a slow first half with sales posting nearly 8 per cent growth over the second half of the year. That growth is adding to already strong momentum in other sectors and supporting housing demand across BC communities where manufacturing, particularly of forestry products, is an important driver of local economic activity.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

BC Home Sales Post Record Year

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 112,209 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2016, an increase of 9.5 per cent from the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was a record $77.6 billion, up 18.8 per cent from 2015. The average MLS® residential price in the province climbed 8.6 per cent to $691,144 on an annual basis in 2016.

“Broad-based consumer demand driven by strong economic conditions, employment growth, consumer confidence, and an expanding population base pushed home sales to record levels in many BC regions last year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, home sales have fallen back from their lofty peaks early last year." The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales activity was approximately 92,000 units in December.

A total of 4,721 residential unit sales were recorded by the MLS® in December, down 28.4 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $3.1 billion last month, a decline of 33.1 per cent compared to the same month the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $654,699 in December, a 6.6 per cent decline from December 2015.

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Canadian Building Permits

The total value of Canadian building permits decreased 0.1 per cent from October to November, largely as a result of lower permit activity in Alberta. Residential construction intentions were down 1.6 per cent across Canada, while non-residential permits rose 3 per cent.  

In BC, the total value of permits rose close to 15 per cent on a monthly basis and 9.5 per cent year-over-year. Residential permits reached their highest level in close to a year with more than $1 billion in total permit values, an increase of  21 per cent from October and 21 per cent year-over-year. Non-residential permits, however, fell 5 per cent on a monthly basis and 20.6 per cent year-over-year.

Construction intentions were mixed across BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA fell by nearly half from October to November and were down 35 per cent year-over-year while the Vancouver CMA saw a 31 per cent increase on a monthly basis and an 11 per cent increase year-over-year. In the Kelowna CMA, permits rose 3 per cent on a monthly basis and 17 per cent year-over-year.  In Victoria, construction intentions dipped 13.4 per cent on a monthly basis, and were about 7 per cent lower than in November 2015.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission