Kootenay Connector Real Estate Blog: October 2016

Monday, October 24, 2016

Canadian Consumer Price Inflation - October 21, 2016

Canadian inflation remained subdued in September as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the rate of inflation in Canada, rose just 1.3 per year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's core measure of inflation, which excludes volatile components like food and gasoline, rose 1.8 per cent for a second consecutive month. In BC, provincial consumer price inflation was 1.8 per cent in the 12 months to September.

Decelerating inflation and a slowing economy had the Bank of Canada discussing, but ultimately deciding against, a rate cut earlier this week. However, it is unlikely that the Bank will act to offset mortgage restrictions introduced by the Federal government unless the outlook for growth inflation becomes dramatically weaker.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - October 19, 2016

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding its target for the overnight interest rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the profile for growth in Canada over the near-term is lower than it previously expected though the Bank is still projecting stronger growth in the second half of 2016. However, the Bank has pushed out its forecast for the economy to return to full capacity to mid-2018 while inflation is projected to return to its 2 per cent target next year.

There is downside risk to the economy given the Federal Government's decision to tighten mortgage credit this month, though it will take some time to see the effects on economic growth. That said, even if growth moderates as a result of the housing policy changes, the Bank of Canada's public support for that policy likely means interest rates would not be lowered in response. With growth recovering from a second quarter contraction and inflation still tame, We therefore expect the Bank to leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.

Canadian Manufacturing Sales - October 18, 2016

Canadian manufacturing sales improved once again in August, rising 0.9 per cent on a monthly basis with broad based gains in 15 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors. Adjusting for inflation, sales were up 1.2 per cent due to lower prices of some goods.

In BC, where the manufacturing sector employs approximately 170,000 people and is a key driver of economic growth, sales were sharply higher for a second consecutive month, rising 2.1 per cent on a monthly basis and 8.1 per cent year-over-year. The gains continue to reflect a strong rebound in the forestry sector, with shipments of wood products rising at a double digit pace year-over-year. Given strong manufacturing sales in August the BC economy remains on track to expand by a Canada leading 3.5 per cent in 2016.

BC Home Sales Reflect Regional Demand Variations

Vancouver, BC – October 14, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,591 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, down 11.2 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.45 billion in September, down 14.1 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $585,844, a decline of 3.2 per cent compared to the same month last year.

“Housing demand in the province continued to trend lower in September," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "While Vancouver, Fraser Valley and the North experienced year-over-year declines last month, the rest of the province posted an increase in the number of residential transactions."

“The average residential price in the province continued to reflect a change in the composition and location of homes sold," added Muir. "However, the effect was less pronounced in September than in August, when detached home sales fell to just 28 per cent of total demand in Vancouver."

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 33.5 per cent to $66 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 18.5 per cent to 93,797 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 12.7 per cent to $703,986.

Canadian Housing Starts - October 11, 2016

Canadian housing starts jumped 20 per cent in September to 220,617 total units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts moved moderately higher to just under 200,000 units SAAR, above average annual growth in Canadian households. New home construction will likely slow in coming months as the consequences of government's new mortgage regulations ripple through the housing market.

Housing starts in BC surged 40 per cent higher to 47,560 in September and were 79 per cent higher on a year-over-year basis. Single detached starts rose 27 per cent compared to last September while multiple unit starts nearly doubled. Through the first three quarters of the year, BC housing starts are up 39 per cent compared to 2015.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC, total starts in the Vancouver CMA were up 110 per cent year-over-year in September, led by triple digit growth in both single and multiple units. In the Victoria CMA, housing starts tripled compared to September 2015 due to strong growth in new multiple unit starts. New home construction in the Kelowna CMA rose 16 per cent on balanced growth between single and multiple unit starts. Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA declined 64 per cent compared to last year as multiple unit projects took a breather in September following several strong months of activity.

Canadian Building Permits - October 6, 2016

The total value of Canadian building permits jumped 10.4 per cent from July to August, with gains largely due to higher construction intentions in the residential sectors of Ontario and British Columbia.

After two straight monthly declines, total permit activity in BC was up 15.9 per cent in August, once again surpassing $1 billion in total value. The gains were almost exclusively due to higher construction intentions for multiple family dwellings. Those gains more than offset a 7.7 per cent monthly decline in non-residential permits. On a year-over-year basis, the dollar value of building permits in the province were up 4.5 per cent.

Construction intentions were higher in most of BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA surged 249 per cent from July to August but were down 7 per cent year-over-year while the Vancouver CMA saw a 15 per cent increase on a monthly basis but a 12 per cent drop year-over-year. In the Kelowna CMA, permits fell 13 per cent from July but were up 67 per cent year-over-year. In Victoria, construction intentions rose 9.3 per cent on a monthly basis, and were 58.5 per cent higher than in August 2015.

Millennials Bear Brunt of Fed Policy Changes

Many, if not most, first-time buyers will experience a steep decline in housing affordability on October 17. New rules introduced by the Federal Government will cause the sharpest drop in the purchasing power of low equity home buyers in years. At a time when housing affordability is a critical issue, deliberately chopping millennials’ purchasing power by as much as 20 per cent will only exacerbate a well-known problem.

Under current rules, insured mortgages with variable rates and fixed terms under five years require home buyers to qualify at the five-year benchmark rate. However, if a borrower opts for a five-year or more fixed term, the borrower can qualify at his or her negotiated, discounted rate instead of the higher benchmark rate. This has long been a fixture of the Canadian mortgage market. As of October 17, 2016, ALL home buyers securing a high-ratio mortgage must qualify at the five-year benchmark rate, even if they have negotiated a lower five-year fixed term rate with their lender.

The low interest rate environment has benefited home buyers and sellers for many years, with all but the least credit-worthy borrowers negotiating a contract rate significantly lower than the benchmark rate. Now, even the most credit conscious households face a dramatic reduction in their purchasing power. For example:

A family with an annual household income of $80,000 and a 5 per cent down payment will see their purchasing power fall from $505,000 to $405,000 (-$100,000). i
An individual with an annual income of $60,000 and a 5 per cent down payment will experience a reduction of purchasing power from $380,000 to $305,000 (-$75,000).
A household earning $120,000 per year and a 10 per cent down payment will see a reduction in purchasing power from $803,000 to $651,000 (-$152,000).

We expect this policy to have the following impacts:

Housing demand will slow as millennials, other first-time and early move-up buyers are squeezed out of the market.
This reduction in demand may cause imbalances and declining prices across some product types in some communities. In addition, new home construction activity will lag along with related employment and economic growth.
Pent-up demand will intensify, contributing to another cycle of rapidly rising prices in the future as financially retrenched millennials buy up an undersupplied housing stock.

Federal Government Changes to Mortgage Insurance Rules - October 3, 2016

The Federal Government announced significant changes to regulations for new-government backed insured mortgages today. Effective October 17, 2016, all insured homebuyers will have to qualify at the posted 5-year qualifying rate. This is a change from previous policy where only variable rate mortgages and mortgages with terms less than 5-years were subject to a higher qualifying rate.

With this move, the Federal Government has chosen to offset a modest risk to the taxpayer by severely eroding affordability for low equity home buyers, particularly first time home buyers. The qualifying rate is updated weekly and available on the Bank of Canada website. It is currently 4.64 per cent, about 200 basis points higher than the best bank offered rates.

To qualify for mortgage insurance, a homebuyer's debt servicing ratio must be no higher than:

Gross Debt Service - 39 per cent of household income, including mortgage payment, taxes and heating costs.

Total Debt Service - 44 per cent of household income, including mortgage payment, taxes, heating costs and all other debt payments

The announced measure will apply to new mortgage insurance applications received on October 17, 2016 or later. This measure will not apply to mortgage loans where:

before October 3, 2016: a mortgage insurance application was received;

the lender made a legally binding commitment to make the loan;

the borrower entered into a legally binding agreement of purchase and sale for the property against which the loan is secured.

Mortgage loans for which mortgage insurance applications are received after October 2, 2016 and before October 17, 2016 are also not affected by the rule change, provided that the mortgage is funded by March 1, 2017. Homeowners with an existing insured mortgage or those renewing existing insured mortgages are not affected by this measure.

The Federal Government is also instituting new eligibility rules for low-ratio (higher than 20% down payment) mortgages backed by government insurance. As of November 30, 2016, to be eligible for government insurance, new mortgages must meet the following requirements:

A loan whose purpose includes the purchase of a property or subsequent renewal of such a loan;

A maximum amortization length of 25 years;

A maximum property purchase price below $1,000,000 at the time the loan is approved;

For variable-rate loans that allow fluctuations in the amortization period, loan payments that are recalculated at least once every five years to conform to the original amortization schedule;

A minimum credit score of 600 at the time the loan is approved;

A maximum Gross Debt Service ratio of 39 per cent and a maximum Total Debt Service ratio of 44 per cent at the time the loan is approved, calculated by applying the greater of the mortgage contract rate or the Bank of Canada conventional five-year fixed posted rate; and,

A property that will be owner-occupied.

These new criteria, in particular requiring a maximum purchase price below $1 million, will essentially make the majority of single family homes in Metro-Vancouver ineligible for government issued insurance for low-ratio mortgages.

Canadian Monthly GDP (July 2016) - September 30, 2016

The Canadian economy built on momentum from a 0.6 per cent increase in June, expanding a further 0.5 per cent in July. Those increases follow equal size monthly declines in the spring which led to a second quarter contraction of 1.6 per cent, the largest decline since the second quarter of 2009. A recovery of output in the mining and oil and gas extraction sector was the primary driver behind strong growth in July.

While some downside risks remain, particularly due to highly leveraged Canadian households, we expect Canadian economic growth will rebound sharply in the third and fourth quarter as oil production normalizes and the federal government's uptick in expenditures and tax credits impacts the economy. The Canadian economy is forecast to expand more than 3 per cent in the third quarter of this year before leveling off to an average of 2.5 per cent in the second half into 2017.

Canadian Housing Starts - August 9, 2016

Canadian housing starts declined 9 per cent in July to 198,847 total units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) following a jump in construction activity in June. The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts moved slightly higher to just over 201,000 units, slightly above average annual growth in Canadian households.

Housing starts in BC also declined, but were still a very robust 41,050 SAAR. On a year-over-year basis, new home construction was up 14 per cent in July due to a 25 per cent jump in single detached starts and an 11 per cent rise in multiple units. Through the first seven months of the year, BC housing starts are up 37 per cent compared to 2015.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC, total starts in the Vancouver CMA were down 9 per cent year-over-year in July, dragged down by a 14 per cent decline in multiple unit starts. Single-detached starts in the Vancouver CMA were up 15 per cent. In the Victoria CMA, housing starts continue to climb, more than doubling year-over-year on strong growth in new multiple unit starts. New home construction in the Kelowna CMA rose 9 per cent as a result of 13 per cent growth in multiple unit starts. Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were up 25 per cent year-over-year, as a surge in single unit construction outweighed a decline in multiple units.