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February Home Sales Reflect Typical Consumer Demand

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,580 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in February, down 31.7 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.53 billion, down 39.7 per cent from February 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $688,117, an 11.7 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

“Consumer demand has returned to a more typical level over the first two months of the year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "While the home sales have declined nearly 32 per cent from the extraordinary performance of a year ago, last month's activity reflected the average for the month February since the year 2000."

“The average MLS® residential price for the province was down nearly 12 per cent from a record $779,419 in February 2016. However, this change is largely the result of a decline in the proportion of provincial sales originating from the Vancouver region. Last month, 37 per cent of BC home sales occurred in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's area, compared to 44 per cent in February 2016.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 38.5 per cent to $7.3 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 28.5 per cent to 11,067 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 14.1 per cent to $660,943.

Copyright BCREA - reprinted with permission 

Where do Buyers come from?

This is one of the questions I am most frequently asked.  Where are the Buyers coming from? Are they from Alberta? Are they escaping Vancouver or the Lower Mainland? As you can see most of them are still coming from right here.

KREB REALTORS® collect buyer origin information when a property sells. KREB compiles this information and provides yearly reports to members. In 2016, REALTORS® confirmed 3515 buyers’ origins from a total of 3567 sales in the Kootenay Real Estate Board area. Although deemed accurate, KREB cannot guarantee the information contained within the report.

Budget 2017—BCREA News Release

On the heels of multiple government announcements in 2016 and early 2017, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) welcomes the latest: an increase in the Property Transfer Tax exemption threshold for first-time buyers, announced in Budget 2017. The increase, to $500,000 from $475,000, takes effect today.

BCREA appreciates this government’s attention to the needs of first-time homebuyers. To keep pace with the dynamic real estate market and ensure that homebuyers aren’t left behind, the Association strongly believes that this threshold—and all others related to the Property Transfer Tax—should be indexed, with adjustments made annually.

During Minister de Jong’s budget consultation in January, BCREA recommended that the first-time buyer exemption be increased to $750,000. That number would align with the exemption for newly-built homes and with the BC HOME Partnership program. This measure would have expanded consumer choices, because the First Time Home Buyers’ Program exemption applies to all homes, rather than only newly-built homes, which are often out of reach of first-time buyers.

BCREA also looks forward to learning more about the provincial government’s plans to partner with local governments to increase housing supply. Specifically, the Association supports incentives that result in faster housing and development approval processes, as well as increased density of family-oriented homes along transit corridors.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

Economy, Population Growth Support Housing Demand Through 2018

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 14.1 per cent to 96,345 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. A moderation trend that began early in 2016, combined with tougher federal government mortgage qualification rules and the foreign buyer tax in Vancouver, is expected to limit consumer demand over the next two years. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average of 84,700 unit sales.

“Solid fundamentals continue to underpin housing demand in the province," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "International trade, population growth and consumer confidence will be key economic drivers this year." Of note, net migration to the province exceeded 50,000 individuals during the first three quarters of 2016, the highest level since 2008 and a 50 per cent increase from the previous year.

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to decline nearly 5 per cent to $657,000 this year, largely the result of increased consumer demand for multi-family homes and a higher proportion of transactions occurring outside the Metro Vancouver market. While a significant number of new homes are under construction in the province, market conditions will continue to be tilted in favour of home sellers in many regions, while home builders scramble to complete existing projects.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

Canadian homeowners’ average before-tax household income was about double that of renters between 2006 and 2014

According to new and revised data from Statistics Canada’s Canadian Income Survey and Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, the average before-tax household income, adjusted for inflation, increased 10.1% from $79,200 in 2006 to $87,200 in 2014. Homeowners’ average household income increased from 2006 to 2008, fell from 2008 to 2009, then increased from 2009 to 2014. For renters, the increase was from 2006 to 2008, the decrease between 2009 and 2011, and continuation of the upward trend was from 2012 to 2014.

Canadian homeowners’ average household income was roughly double that of renters throughout the 2006 to 2014 period. However, renters’ average household income grew more between 2006 and 2014 with a 12.2% increase compared to 9.8% for homeowners.

In 2014, Alberta had the highest average provincial household income at $116,400 while New Brunswick had the lowest at $70,800.

Copyright CMHC

BC Home Sales Return to Historic Average

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,487 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, down 23 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $2.79 billion, down 36.5 per cent from January 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $621,093, a 17.5 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

“Housing demand across the province returned to long-term average levels last month," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, regional variations persist, with Victoria posting above average performance and Vancouver falling below the average."

“A marked decrease in the average MLS® residential price is largely the result of relatively more home sales occurring outside of the Lower Mainland," added Muir.

Home sales from Vancouver fell from 43 per cent of provincial transactions in January 2016 to 35 per cent last month. In addition, fewer detached home sales in Vancouver relative to multi-family units has skewed the average price statistic down in the province's largest urban area. In contrast, the MLS® Residential Benchmark Price in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver area has declined 3.7 per cent over the past six months, but is up 15.6 per cent from January 2016.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding the target for its overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that uncertainty in the global outlook, particularly with regard to policies in the United States, is undiminished. The Canadian economy is forecast to grow 2.1 per cent in both 2017 and 2018, implying the Canadian economy will return to full capacity in mid-2018.  On inflation, the Bank noted that it continued to be lower than expected but should return to it 2 per cent target in coming months.

Political uncertainty in the United States will likely govern the direction of both policy rates and long-term bond yields over the next year. The interest rate on 5-year government of Canada bonds has risen to its highest point in a year, which is adding upward pressure to mortgage rates offered by Canadian lenders.  While the Canadian economy is forecast to post steady growth in 2017, overall slack in the Canadian economy remains persistent.  Without a significant uptick in economic growth, inflation will likely continue to trend at or below the Bank's 2 per cent target.  That, along with lingering uncertainty, will keep the Bank sidelined through 2017 with a chance of lowering its target rate should current downside risks to the economy become realized.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

Canadian Manufacturing Sales

Canadian manufacturing sales rose 1.5 per cent in November after posting a moderate decline the previous month.  Sales were higher in 14 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors. After adjusting for inflation, the total volume of sales was 1.2 per cent higher.

In BC, where the manufacturing sector is a significant employer and a key driver of economic growth, sales were up 2.4 per cent on a monthly basis and 9.2 per cent year-over-year. The manufacturing sector has been on a significant upswing after a slow first half with sales posting nearly 8 per cent growth over the second half of the year. That growth is adding to already strong momentum in other sectors and supporting housing demand across BC communities where manufacturing, particularly of forestry products, is an important driver of local economic activity.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

BC Home Sales Post Record Year

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 112,209 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2016, an increase of 9.5 per cent from the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was a record $77.6 billion, up 18.8 per cent from 2015. The average MLS® residential price in the province climbed 8.6 per cent to $691,144 on an annual basis in 2016.

“Broad-based consumer demand driven by strong economic conditions, employment growth, consumer confidence, and an expanding population base pushed home sales to record levels in many BC regions last year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, home sales have fallen back from their lofty peaks early last year." The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales activity was approximately 92,000 units in December.

A total of 4,721 residential unit sales were recorded by the MLS® in December, down 28.4 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $3.1 billion last month, a decline of 33.1 per cent compared to the same month the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $654,699 in December, a 6.6 per cent decline from December 2015.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

Canadian Building Permits

The total value of Canadian building permits decreased 0.1 per cent from October to November, largely as a result of lower permit activity in Alberta. Residential construction intentions were down 1.6 per cent across Canada, while non-residential permits rose 3 per cent.  

In BC, the total value of permits rose close to 15 per cent on a monthly basis and 9.5 per cent year-over-year. Residential permits reached their highest level in close to a year with more than $1 billion in total permit values, an increase of  21 per cent from October and 21 per cent year-over-year. Non-residential permits, however, fell 5 per cent on a monthly basis and 20.6 per cent year-over-year.

Construction intentions were mixed across BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA fell by nearly half from October to November and were down 35 per cent year-over-year while the Vancouver CMA saw a 31 per cent increase on a monthly basis and an 11 per cent increase year-over-year. In the Kelowna CMA, permits rose 3 per cent on a monthly basis and 17 per cent year-over-year.  In Victoria, construction intentions dipped 13.4 per cent on a monthly basis, and were about 7 per cent lower than in November 2015.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission