The British Columbia economy is forecast to grow at a
slightly faster pace in 2014 and 2015, compared to 2013. With a projected
improvement in labour markets and ongoing population growth, consumer demand for
goods and services, including housing, is expected to contribute to economic
growth. Real gross domestic product is forecast to increase 2.3 per cent
in 2014 and 2.8 per cent in 2015, compared to an estimated 1.7 per cent
in 2013.
Growth in employment and incomes is expected to generate
demand for housing during the forecast horizon. Employment is expected to grow
1.5 per cent in 2014 and 2.4 per cent in 2015, following a slight
contraction in 2013. Despite no employment growth in 2013, a rising share of
full-time employment boosted growth in the average weekly wage rate above the national
average. This rising trend is forecast to continue.
The unemployment rate is forecast to move up to 6.7
per cent in 2014, from 6.6 per cent in 2013 despite
the projected pick up in employment growth next year. The
higher unemployment rate is a result of an
expected turnaround in interprovincial migration and
people returning to the labour market. In 2015, higher employment growth will
result in a lower unemployment rate of 6.4 per cent.
Population growth is forecast to average about one
per cent per year3. Net international migration, which added more
than 41,000 people to the province in 2013, is expected to stabilize during the
next two years at a level similar to 2013. This is expected to contribute to
house price growth and lower rental vacancy rates.
CMHC
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