After trending lower in the second half of 2010, housing starts are forecast to stabilize at levels consistent with demographic fundamentals in 2011 and 2012, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) first quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition.
Housing starts will be in the range of 157,300 to 192,900 units in 2011, with a point forecast of 177,600 units. In 2012, housing starts will be in the range of 154,600 to 211,200 units, with a point forecast of 183,800 units.
“Modest economic growth will continue to push employment levels higher this year and next. This, in conjunction with relatively low mortgage rates, will continue to support demand for new homes. Housing starts will remain in line with long term demographic fundamentals over the course of 2011 and 2012,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.
Existing home sales will be in the range of 398,500 to 485,500 units in 2011, with a point forecast of 441,500 units. In 2012, MLS®2 sales will move up and are expected to be in the range of 406,300 to 519,700 units, with a point forecast of 462,900 units.
Mr. Dugan also noted that the existing home market will remain in the balanced to sellers’ market range in 2011 and 2012. As a result, growth in the average MLS® price is expected to remain in line with economy-wide inflation in 2011 and 2012.
CMHC February 17, 2011