Housing Market Push and Pull: Economic Growth Versus Affordability

BCREA Housing Forecast - Second Quarter 2010

Vancouver, BC – June 7, 2010. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Housing Forecast for the second quarter of 2010 today.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to ease back 3 per cent from 85,028 units in 2009 to 82,350 units this year, before increasing 4 per cent to 85,900 units in 2011.

“Eroding affordability will trim home sales by 3 per cent this year despite improving economic conditions and related employment growth,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The push and pull of positive economic growth versus rising mortgage interest rates is expected to keep BC home sales near their 10-year average of 85,569 units both this year and next.”

The average MLS® residential price is forecast to climb 6 per cent to $494,600 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2011, albeit increasing by 1 per cent to $499,700.

“Strong consumer demand in Vancouver, Victoria and the Fraser Valley was largely responsible for driving the average home price in the province higher over the last three quarters,” added Muir. “However, demand has moderated in those markets and a larger inventory of homes for sale has pulled market conditions into balanced territory, providing less upward pressure on home prices.”

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”