Average Performance for Housing Market in 2012

BCREA 2012 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update 

Vancouver, BC – January 27, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today. 

“Modest economic growth at home and abroad is expected to limit growth in consumer demand both this year and in 2013,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. 

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 2.1 per cent from 76,817 units in 2011 to 78,400 units this year, increasing a further 2.7 per cent to 80,500 units in 2013. The 15-year average is 79,000 unit sales. A record 106,310 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.   

"While European sovereign debt concerns and a sluggish US economy will continue to impact consumer confidence, strong demand in the bond market is expected to keep mortgage interest rates at or near record lows for most of 2012,” added Muir. 

Home prices in most BC markets are forecast to experience little change over the next 24 months as the supply of homes for sale more closely matches consumer demand. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to edge down 2.2 per cent to $548,500 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2013, albeit increasing 0.8 per cent to $553,000.

Copyright BCREA reprinted with permission

GOLD MEDAL RECOVERY LIMITED BY ECONOMY, AFFORDABILITY

Residential units sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®)in BC are forecast to increase 6 per cent to 90,100 units in 2010, before edging back 3 per cent to 87,500 units in 2011. MLS® residential unit sales sprinted from an annualized
rate of 50,000 units during the first quarter of 2009 to 112,000 units during the fourth quarter. However,waning pent-up demand and eroding affordability is expected to moderate the pace of home sales going forward, particularly on the South
Coast.

While market performance in Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley markets were largely responsible for pulling the provincial aggregate significantly higher last year, MLS® residential sales are expected grow more rapidly outside these major markets in 2010, as the full impact of low mortgage rates, attractive home prices and improved consumer confidence are just now taking hold.

In 2011, BC residential sales will be constrained by higher home prices, especially on the South Coast, and rising mortgage interest rates. In addition, relatively sluggish economic and employment growth is not expected to propel household incomes high enough to offset the rising carrying cost of housing.

The average annual BC MLS® residential price is forecast to climb 5 per cent to $490,900 this year, and remain relatively unchanged in 2011, albeit up 1 per cent to
$494,800. Most of the increase will likely occur by the end of the first quarter this year. Home prices are expected to experience relatively less upward pressure as the year unfolds.

In Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, moderating consumer demand (compared to Q4 2009) combined with a larger number of homes for sale is expected to level
market conditions from a sellers’ year. Housing markets in the rest of the province are expected to exhibit a relative balance between buyers and sellers through the next two years.

Housing forcats for Kooteany's

Unit Sales
2009 = 2,119
2010 forecast = 2,550 up 20%
2011 forecast = 2,600 up 2%

Average MLS Price

2009 = $274,118
2010 Forecast = $284,000 up 4%
2011 Forecast = $290,000 up 2%

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”