CREA’s previous two forecasts anticipated that national
sales activity in 2013 would improve following the slow start to the year,
buoyed by the continuation of low interest rates amid a constructive economic
backdrop and the return of buyers who deferred purchase decisions or were
otherwise sidelined in the wake of tighter mortgage rules and lending
guidelines implemented last year.
National sales have improved more quickly than
anticipated. This likely reflects the transient influence of buyers with
pre-approved financing making purchases before their lower pre-approved rates
expire, particularly in some of Canada’s most active and expensive housing
markets.
“Real estate markets can be very different depending on
the region and community due to local factors,” said Laura Leyser, CREA
President. “For that reason, buyers and sellers should talk to their REALTOR®
about the housing market outlook where they live or might like to.”
CREA’s forecast for national sales activity has been
rebalanced with a modest upward revision this year to reflect stronger than
expected sales for the year-to-date. CREA’s previous forecast for national
sales in 2014 remains little changed.
Sales are forecast to reach 449,900 units in 2013. This
represents a decline of one per cent from last year and marks the sixth
consecutive year for which activity will have held to within short reach of
450,000 units.
The upward revision to activity in British Columbia
accounts for nearly half of the small upward revision to national activity this
year. The forecast for sales across the Prairies has also been raised. British
Columbia and Alberta are the only provinces where CREA annual sales are
forecast to rise above levels last year.
In 2014, national activity is forecast to reach to
465,600 units, a rebound of 3.5 per cent, and in line with its 10-year-average.
The forecast increase reflects a gradual strengthening of sales activity
alongside further economic, job, and income growth combined with only slightly
higher mortgage interest rates.
British Columbia is still forecast to post the strongest
sales increase in 2014 (+6.7%) compared to a weak result in 2013. Most other
provinces are forecast to post gains in the range between two and four per
cent.
Average prices have also remained firmer than expected
due to a rise in the share of national sales among larger and pricier markets
compared to last year.
The national average home price is projected to rise by
3.6 per cent to $376,300 in 2013, with gains strongest and in the range between
four and five per cent in Prairie provinces and around six per cent in
Newfoundland and Labrador. Average price growth in British Columbia and Ontario
is expected to come in just under the national increase, advance by less than
one per cent in Quebec and New Brunswick, and recede by less than one per cent
in Nova Scotia.
“The environment for home prices in Quebec, New Brunswick,
and Nova Scotia will likely be shaped by ample inventory levels relative to
sales,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The balance between the
two indicates that buyers have an abundance of listings from which to choose in
those provinces, which could keep pricing prospects in check until sales draw
down inventories.”
The national average price is forecast to edge up a
further 1.7 per cent in 2014 to $382,800. Alberta is forecast to see the
biggest average price increase in 2014 (3.4 per cent), with gains in
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador running just ahead of
overall consumer price inflation. Average prices in Quebec and New Brunswick
are expected to remain stable in 2014, with other provinces eking out gains
ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 per cent.
Copyright CREA – reprinted with permission
No comments:
Post a Comment