BC Commercial Leading Indicator Continues to Signal Strength in 2012

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose for the third consecutive quarter, advancing 1.3 index points, or 1.2 per cent, to a revised index level of 111.91. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the CLI is now 3.2 per cent above its level in the first quarter 2011.

"The trend in the CLI has turned sharply upward, reflecting several months of strong underlying data,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist.  “This signals a potential acceleration commercial real estate activity in the subsequent two to four quarters."

This quarter’s increase in the CLI was driven by calmer global financial conditions to start 2012 as Euro-based fears cooled. The financial component of the CLI accounted for over one-third of CLI’s gain in the first quarter, with manufacturing output and employment growth also making a significant contribution.

“However, given the re-emergence of fears surrounding the Eurozone, last quarter’s gains may be only temporary,” added Ogmundson.

Copyright BCREA Reprinted with permission