Sunday, November 16, 2008

Financial/Equity Markets Impact October Home Sales

British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports residential sales dollar volume on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 54 per cent to $1.69 billion in October, compared to October 2007. Residential unit sales were down 51 per cent to 4,018 units during the same period. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $420,259, down 6.5 per cent from October 2007.

“Housing demand was negatively affected by the global financial crisis and a sharp downturn in the equity markets,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “These events exacerbated an already low level of consumer confidence, keeping many potential homebuyers on the sidelines.”

Residential sales in October were the lowest since December 2000, on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Home sales are unlikely to fall much further,” added Muir. “While the provincial economy has weakened, the fundamentals support a higher level of home sales than experienced last month.”

Year-to-date MLS® residential sales dollar volume in the province declined 27 per cent to $29.2 billion compared to the same period last year. Provincial MLS® sales declined 30 per cent to 63,760 units, while the average residential price increased 5 per cent to $458,078 over the same
period.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” Vancouver November 14, 2008

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Government of Canada Announces Additional Support for Canadian Credit Markets

The Honourable Jim Flaherty, Minister of Finance, today announced the Government will purchase up to an additional $50 billion of insured mortgage pools by the end of the fiscal year as part of its ongoing efforts to maintain the availability of longer-term credit in Canada.

This action will increase to $75 billion the maximum value of securities purchased through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) under this program.

"At a time of considerable uncertainty in global financial markets, this action will provide Canada’s financial institutions with significant and stable access to longer-term funding," said Minister Flaherty.

"This extension of the program to purchase insured mortgages will further support the availability of credit, which will benefit Canadian households, businesses and the economy. In addition, it will earn a modest rate of return for the Government with no additional risk to the taxpayer."

In addition:

The Government will reduce the base commercial pricing of the Canadian Lenders Assurance Facility by 25 basis points. It will also waive the 25 basis point across-the-board surcharge for insurance provided under the Facility until further notice. This will make the Facility more competitive with similar programs offered in other countries. The term sheet for the Facility will be posted on the Finance Canada web site (www.fin.gc.ca) shortly.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced yesterday an increase in the allowable limit of innovative and preferred shares in Tier 1 capital. This will provide Canadian financial institutions with more sources of funds to support lending in Canada. This will also ensure that similar decisions in other countries do not place Canadian institutions at a competitive disadvantage. Further technical information is available from OSFI at www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca.

As the Bank of Canada noted in its announcement on October 13, the Bank will continue to provide exceptional liquidity to the Canadian financial system as long as conditions warrant.

"The Government of Canada is prepared to take whatever steps are necessary to ensure that Canada’s strong financial system is not put at a competitive disadvantage by developments in other countries. The Government will not allow Canada’s financial system, which has been ranked as the soundest in the world, to be put at risk by global events," said Minister Flaherty.

CMHC November 12, 2008

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Housing Starts Remained Strong in October

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 211,800 units in October, down from 218,600 units in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Housing starts remained strong in October and are consistent with our new home construction forecast for 2008,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “The slight decrease in housing starts is the result of declines in both single-detached and multiple starts in October.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts eased 4.2 per cent in October, compared to September. Urban multiples declined in October by 6.0 per cent to 115,300 units. Urban single starts decreased 1.1 per cent to 69,300 units in October compared to September.

October’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moderated in three out of the five regions of Canada. Urban starts increased to 41,300 units in the Quebec region and to 9,600 units in Atlantic Canada. On the other hand, urban starts declined to 27,900 units in British Columbia, 26,900 units in the Prairies, and 78,900 units in Ontario. Single urban starts decreased in all regions in October, with the exception of Ontario, where they increased by 10.1 per cent.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 27,200 units in October.
For the first ten months of 2008, actual starts in rural and urban areas combined were down an estimated 1.6 per cent, compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date actual starts in urban areas have decreased by an estimated 1.3 per cent over the same period in 2007. Actual urban single starts for the January to October period of this year were 16.3 per cent lower than they were a year earlier while urban multiple starts were up by 11.6 per cent over the same period.

CMHC Ottawa November 10, 2008

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Slow Market Sales Tactics

When a property is listed for sale with a Realtor a listing contract is signed. This contract has a start and end date. If the property is unsold by the end of the contract the listing is said to have expired.

So far in 2008, in an area which includes Nelson, Nelson rural, Kaslo and Salmo, there have been 240 expired listings compared with a total of 171 expired listings for all of 2007. Over the past 7 days alone there have been 64 listings expire.

Some of these expired contracts will be re-listed however some Sellers will decide to take their property off of the market permanently. Seller fatigue being the term used to describe how Sellers are feeling after being unsuccessful in selling their homes. Being a Seller myself I understand the emotional roller coaster that causes this fatigue.

No matter what the market conditions the best that you can hope to do as a Seller is sell for fair market value. To do this requires constantly reevaluating market conditions and revisiting price. The current economic uncertainty has certainly slowed the activity in the real estate market however properties do continue to sell.

Properties that are selling have successful achieved the following two things:
  1. Priced it Right - For a property to sell right now it must be the most well priced home on the market. There can be no question as to the value. In short when it is viewed by prospective Buyers it should appear to be a deal.
  2. Be Prepared - Have all of the maintenance issues looked after, hire a home stager, have information regarding utilities available and be mentally prepared to negotiate.
In 2008 Buyers have more to choose from and can take their time before deciding to place an offer. Sellers must be aware of the competition and be ready to compete to successfully sell in this Buyers Market.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Housing Starts tp Moderate in 2009

New home construction will moderate from historically high levels, to reach just under 178,000 units in 2009, a level that is consistent with demographic fundamentals, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition report.

“High employment levels, rising incomes and low mortgage rates have continued to provide a solid foundation for healthy housing markets this year,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC. “Housing starts will moderate to 212,200 units in 2008 and 177,975 units in 2009.”

Existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®)1, which reached a record level of 523,701 sales in 2007, will moderate in 2008 to 452,225 units. In 2009, MLS® sales will move to 433,375 units. Despite a moderation in MLS® sales, demand for existing homes will remain strong by historical standards. With housing markets having become balanced across Canada, the rate of growth in the average MLS® price will moderate. Average prices will reach $306,500 in 2008 and $306,700 in 2009.

October 30, 2008 CMHC

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Consumer Confidence Key to Housing Market Conditions

BCREA Fall Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – October 29, 2008. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its fall 2008 Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to decline 28 per cent from 102,805 units in 2007 to 73,700 units this year. A modest 4 per cent increase to 76,500 units is forecast for 2009.

“The erosion of consumer confidence that began with rising fuel prices earlier in the year is continuing, as the global financial crisis and volatile equity markets have BC households concerned about their own finances,” said Cameron Muir, Chief Economist.

A weaker provincial economy is expected to increase the jobless rate from 4.4 per cent this year to 4.9 per cent in 2009. “While some job losses will occur next year, BC households will remain on a relatively solid financial footing,” added Muir.

The average MLS® residential price is forecast to increase 3 per cent to $453,000 this year. However, home prices peaked in the first quarter and have been edging lower for several months. For 2009, the average price is forecast to decline 9 per cent to $413,000, with most of the decrease having already occurred by the end this year.

Downward pressure on home prices is expected to ease by the second quarter of 2009, as an increase in affordability and consumer confidence induces a modest growth in sales. The inventory of homes for sale is also expected to decline in the coming months as potential home sellers delay putting their homes on the market until conditions improve.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

Simple tips for using less hot and cold water

Did you know that a faucet dripping only one drop per second wastes enough water in one month to fill six bathtubs? And roughly 25 per cent of the energy used in a home is for heating water? However, homeowners can save money, reduce energy use and diminish their impact on the environment by following these simple water-wise tips.
  • Wash clothes with cold water. Between 80 and 90 per cent of the energy used to wash clothes is for heating the water. If all families switched to cold water washing, British Columbians would save $87 million.
  • Install low-flow showerheads. They can use 40 per cent less hot water than older models and can be installed in minutes.
  • Use faucet aerators. They mix air bubbles in the flow of water, slowing the amount of water that flows out, and save up to 40 per cent of the water used for hand washing.
  • Keep a jug of water in the fridge rather than running the tap for cold water.

To learn more about ways to conserve energy in everyday life, as well as BC Hydro’s Power Smart residential programs such as mail-in rebates, ENERGY STAR® windows, PST exemptions and Power Smart New Homes, visit www.bchydro.com/powersmart.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Nelson Landing Unveiled

The city could be heading into anther waterfront development public process as Nelson Landing prepares to begin its odyssey.

With the coals still smoldering across the city from the Kutanai Landing waterfront project debate, Sorensen Fine Homes principal David Sorensen appeared before city council Monday night touting the merits of his housing project, slated for the former Kootenay Forest Products land on the shores of Kootenay Lake.

The phrases “affordable housing,” “no cost to the taxpayer” and “site remediation” were again bandied about as Sorensen made his presentation to council.

He is proposing to build a 150-unit housing development with up to 30 below market value units, a hotel and small conference centre and 26 commercial units on the 12.5 acre parcel of land.

There would also be a marina included in the scope of the project, as well as public access to Red Sands Beach.

Like Kutanai Landing before it, the initial rhetoric sounds good, said Councilor Ian Mason, but proof of the project’s merit will be revealed as the development application process play’s out.

The affordable housing component, at first glance, is enticing, as is the $80 million worth of new construction and significant infusion of new tax base for the city, he said.

“Basically we’ve been presented with a concept but the devil is always in the details in these things. I’m cautiously optimistic with this one.” He said.

“It’s a big project for someone to build 20 to 30 units, it’s a big step. I’m happy to see people still have confidence in development in our community given the global financial climate.”

No lots will be sold in the development said Sorensen, only finished houses. For them to control the architecture and create something beautiful like the old streets of Nelson is really a big deal for the developer of fine-crafted homes.

“it’s absolutely all about a community,” he said. “There are no condominiums, we all get to use the waterfront, we all get to use the beach and nothing is over two-and-a-half storey buildings.”

Parts of the building site are considered brown-field and require environmental remediation. Sorensen has already acquired an approval in principle from the Ministry of Environment and will use Pottinger Gaherty as its environmental consultant.

Sorensen told council the approval has taken a risk assessment approach, with what is below the surface of the site being left untouched.

There will be a build up of clean top-soil around the new buildings with “many sources of clean fill” being available, said Sorensen.

The Peco decks, reaching out into the lake will be retained and used for a hotel inn, office and retail commercial space and a small conference centre. It will also be the hub for the marina.

Although Mason thought the project would fit nicely into the community – with affordable housing, public access to the waterfront, site remediation and no high-rise condominiums – he was cautiously optimistic.

“At first blush it looks like a project that would be widely accepted by the community. Having said that there is always someone who wants to toss a rock in that,” he said.

Rezoning will be sought, said Sorensen, because the zoning attached to the property is such a “mish mash” that the city wants to write it fresh, making it a public process to let people know what is happening there.

As the application process unfolds it will be seen whether council will be called on to make some decisions. The next step will be to formalize the application for the project and then go through the process for the permit approval.

Timothy Schafer Nelson Daily News October 23, 2008

Friday, October 17, 2008

U.S. new home construction tumbles in September

More bad news emerged from the battered U.S. housing sector on Friday as the government said construction of new homes and apartments tumbled last month.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that new construction fell by 6.3 per cent for the month — much worse than the drop of 1.6 per cent that had been projected by economists.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, total production came in at an annual rate of 817,000 — the lowest pace since January 1991, when the U.S. was in recession.

Economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR had been expecting last month's housing starts to come in at an annual rate of 880,000 units.

The drop was led by a 20.9 per cent plummet in housing starts in the northeastern part of the country. Construction of single-family homes there fell to their lowest level on record.

The U.S. housing sector has been battered by the fallout from the subprime mortgage mess. Rising foreclosures have flooded the market with unsold properties, sending prices down.

"This housing sector report was simply awful, as it suggests that the U.S. housing market correction may have quickened in recent months," said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities.

"And with the U.S. economy appearing to have softened considerably in recent months, and the labour market remaining in a very depressing state, there is little to suggest that a turnaround in activity will occur any time soon," Mulraine said.

Royal Bank economist Josh Heller said that if a silver lining is to be found, it lies in the fact that the lower starts fall, the faster excess inventory in the U.S. housing sector will be worked off.

"Only once inventories of unsold homes retreat back to historical norms do we expect prices to stabilize and a steady recovery to take hold," Heller said.

Friday, October 17, 2008 CBC News

Attainable Housing and Green Buildings: Budget 2009

Vancouver, BC – October 16, 2008. This afternoon, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) and the Canadian Home Builders’ Association of BC (CHBA BC) recommended the provincial government, in Budget 2009, restructure the Property Transfer Tax to improve housing affordability and make better use of the housing sector to help residents make greener building choices.

“The Property Transfer Tax detracts from provincial affordable housing initiatives previous budgets have put in place, such as enhancements to the First-Time Home Buyers’ Program, and changes to the Home Owner Grant aimed at seniors,” said Robert Laing, BCREA Chief Executive Officer.

The BC Government levies a Property Transfer Tax rate that is 129 per cent higher than the average for Canadian provinces. The rate—1% on the first $200,000 of a property and 2% on the remainder—has remained the same since the tax was introduced in 1987. The negative impact of the Property Transfer Tax on British Columbians appears to be at odds with the provincial government’s competitive taxation principles.

In a submission to the Select Standing Committee on Finance and Government Services, and as a first step to a fairer Property Transfer Tax that enables greater affordability and accessibility to housing, BCREA and CHBA BC suggest the government restructure the Property Transfer Tax to reflect current housing market conditions in BC by increasing the 1% tax threshold to $400,000 and levying 2% tax on the balance.

The second key recommendation is for the government to improve the attainability of green housing through a program that provides a Property Transfer Tax rebate to buyers of new homes that meet a Built Green™ standard for greenhouse gas emissions and less waste. With the introduction of a new building code and a desire by CHBA BC builders to build to a higher energy standard, a home can now cost between 4 and 6% more.

“Built Green™ BC is about healthier buildings for homeowners and for the environment,” noted M.J. Whitemarsh, CEO of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association of BC. “The incentive we propose would return money to British Columbians in a way that’s directly targeted at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

With Budget 2009, the BC Government has the opportunity to build on past initiatives to help British Columbians become homeowners and reduce the province’s carbon footprint.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”