Canadian Retail Sales

After rising for four consecutive months, Canadian retail sales fell 0.5 per cent in September. Adjusted for the effects of changing prices, in particular declining gasoline prices, the volume of sales was actually up 0.1 per cent.  In BC, retail sales were up 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis and 6 per cent compared to September 2014. Year-to-date, retail sales in the province are up 7 per cent over last year. 

Given today's data release, Canadian real GDP is currently tracking at about 2.5 per cent in the third quarter, while the BC economy is on pace to grow 2.8 per cent for all of 2015. 

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Robust Housing Demand Continues in October

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,725 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, up 14.1 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.8 billion, up 32.3 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $667,480, up 16 per cent from October 2014.

“Consumer demand continued at a heightened pace in October,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “Market conditions have diverged significantly in the province as very low supply and a near

record pace of home sales in the metro Vancouver area is offsetting resource sector driven weakness in northern markets.“

There was a four month supply of residential inventory province wide in October, with markets in the Lower Mainland and Victoria closer to three months of supply. A balanced market typically exhibits a five to eight month supply of homes for sale.

The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 33.6 per cent to $55.3 billion, when compared with the same period in 2014. Residential unit sales climbed by 20.4 per cent to 87,895 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 11 per cent to $628,909.

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Canadian Manufacturing Sales

Canadian manufacturing sales declined 1.5 per cent in September, the second consecutive monthly decline.  Lower sales were the result of ongoing weakness in the energy sector as well as falling demand in the motor-vehicle industry.  Overall, sales were lower in 13 of 21 Canadian manufacturing sub-sectors, representing about 80% of Canadian manufacturing output.

In BC, where the manufacturing sector employs roughly 170,000 people, sales rose 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis but were down 0.6 per cent compared to September 2014.  BC manufacturing sales are being led by growth in shipments of wood products to the United States as well as strong demand for BC made machinery and equipment. Those sectors are helping to offset current weakness in commodity prices to produce growth of 3 per cent in manufacturing sales year-to-date. 

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Housing Demand to Ease but Remain Elevated in 2016

BCREA 2015 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – November 10, 2015. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2015 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are projected to surpass 100,000 units this year. This level of home sales will be the third strongest on record and mark the first year since 2007 that BC home sales exceed the ten year average.

After climbing 15 per cent in 2014 and nearly 20 per cent this year, BC MLS® residential sales are forecast to decline 7 per cent to 93,700 units in 2016. “Less latent pent-up demand and gradual upward momentum of mortgage interest rates is expected to ease housing demand next year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.

“The inventory of homes for sale is now at its lowest level in nearly eight years,” added Muir. “Sellers’ market conditions are prevailing in many communities and causing home prices to be pushed higher.” The average MLS® residential price in the province is projected to increase 10.2 per cent to $626,000 this year and forecast to slow to a 2.2 per cent increase at $639,700.

Total housing starts in the province are projected to reach over 30,000 units this year, the highest level of production since 2008. Capacity constraints and an edging back of consumer demand is largely behind a forecast decline of BC housing starts, albeit just to 28,800 units in 2016.

Copyright BCREA – reprinted with permission 

Best Rate Mortgages

This edition of the Weekly Rate Minder has the latest, best rates for Canadian mortgages. At Dominion Lending Centres, we work on your behalf to find the mortgage that suits your needs. Best of all — our service is free.* It's the selected lender that pays us and YOU get the best rate. *(O.A.C., E.&O.E.) • Our Best National Rates • Explore Mortgage Scenarios with Helpful Calculators on http://www.derekdiener.com

Terms Bank Rates Our Rates 6 Month 3.14% 3.10% 1 YEAR 2.89% 2.29% 2 YEARS 2.84% 2.19% 3 YEARS 3.39% 2.34% 4 YEARS 3.89% 2.49% 5 YEARS 4.64% 2.59% 7 YEARS 5.30% 3.39% 10 YEARS 6.10% 3.84% Rates are subject to change without notice. *OAC E&OE

Prime Rate is 2.70%  Variable rate mortgages from as low as Prime minus 0.55%  Please note that rates shown above are subject to change without notice. The rates shown are  posted rates and the actual rate you receive may be different, depending upon your personal financial situation. “Some conditions may apply. Rates may vary from Province to Province. Rates subject to change without notice. *O.A.C. E.& O.E.” Check with your Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Professional for full details and to determine what rate will be available for you. *O.A.C., E.& O.E.

Canadian Housing Starts

Canadian housing starts moderated from a very strong September, falling close to 15 per cent to a still robust 198,065 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in October.  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts of 206,089 units SAAR continues to rise and is currently above the rate of household formations in Canada, a sign that new home construction could slow next year. 

Housing starts in BC were up 21 per cent from September, rising to 33,737 units SAAR.  On a year-over-year basis, housing starts were up 48 per cent with single detached starts falling 2 per cent year-over year while multiple unit starts jumped 83 per cent compared to October 2014. Year-to-date, total housing starts in BC are up 13 per cent compared to 2014. 

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC, total starts in the Vancouver CMA were up 70 per cent year-over-year in October as a result of a sharp rise in the construction of multiple units, which more than doubled compared to October 2014.  In the Victoria CMA, the rate of new home construction was also more than double the rate of last October with both single and multiple starts posting strong growth. Total housing starts in the Kelowna CMA were up 30 per cent year-over-year on broad strength in both single and multiple unit starts.  Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were up close to 90 per cent compared to this time last year largely on strong growth in single unit starts. 

Copyright BCREA - reprinted with permission